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South Africa, which had one in all many world’s earliest and strictest lockdowns, is marking a giant shift in its wrestle in direction of coronavirus, writes BBC Africa correspondent Andrew Harding.

It was hardly a “mission achieved” second.

South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa appeared appropriately dour, and sounded appropriately cautious, as he appeared on nationwide television this week to warn of the dangers of a second wave of infections and to induce most people in direction of stress-free their guard in direction of the virus.

And however the president’s key message was a simple, optimistic and spectacular actuality.

“Now we now have succeeded in overcoming the worst a part of this epidemic,” he declared.

As a result of the an an infection charge proper right here sinks underneath an very important threshold of 1 new case per day per 100,000 people, South Africa is transferring – with help, and with some delight – right into a model new half.

What the president and his scientific advisers describe as “a model new common”.

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image captionFirms are getting once more to common all through the nation

With just about all monetary train resuming, the nation’s borders slowly opening, and one in all many world’s earliest and strictest lockdowns ending, this seems like a giant second – a risk to take stock, even to rejoice, and to find the ever-thorny problem of who, or what, should share most credit score rating for holding Covid-19.

“I had visions of Italy… that we’re not ready, that we are going to get overwhelmed,” recalled Professor Salim Abdool Karim – chair of the federal authorities’s Covid-19 advisory panel and most people face of the scientific group – contemplating once more to March, and to what he and the federal authorities publicly warned was an oncoming viral “storm”.

In its place, just a few hospitals have been overwhelmed, and the official dying toll of some 15,000 is significantly lower than even basically probably the most optimistic modelling predicted.

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image captionLike excessive US virus expert Anthony Fauci (L), Salim Kalim (R) has turn into the face of his nation’s wrestle in direction of Covid-19

Speaking on an internet hyperlink from his office in Durban, Prof Karim doesn’t disguise the help he feels.

Nonetheless, like many scientists, his inclination is to not sit once more and experience the good news, nonetheless considerably to keep up probing and testing hypotheses as a method to greater understand every Covid-19, and South Africa’s response to it.

‘Harmful epidemic’

There’s a great deal of data to wade by way of now.

A whole lot of it contradictory. Or considerably, numerous it nonetheless needing to be put in right context.

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image captionJust a few hospitals in South Africa have been overwhelmed by Covid-19 victims

Take South Africa’s prolonged battle in direction of HIV and tuberculosis.

New proof suggests TB victims are notably vulnerable to Covid-19.

Nonetheless, on the flip aspect, the strategies put in place to take care of every pre-existing diseases, “assisted us and better prepared us to take care of Covid,” acknowledged Prof Karim.

And whereas South Africa might have good trigger to rejoice its successes, there could also be tons to criticise too.

“Now we have had a fairly harmful epidemic,” acknowledged Prof Karim.

“At one stage we now have been the fifth worst on this planet. I might not title that one factor to be happy with.

“I might need been really proud if we’d been ready to mitigate the have an effect on to a rather a lot bigger extent.”

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As we now have reported proper right here in newest months, there have been conditions of appalling mismanagement, alarming allegations of corruption, and some grave errors in coping with the outbreak.

I’ll depart the monetary have an effect on of the lockdown – and the skilled debate, enriched by hindsight, about whether or not or not the federal authorities purchased the stability correct – to a special day.

9 theories

Nonetheless what of the reasons for South Africa’s relative success in stopping the virus?

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image captionOn the height of the lockdown, South Africans weren’t ready to buy alcohol or cigarettes

Prof Karim has drawn up a list of 9 parts, or hypotheses, which he applies not merely to South Africa, nonetheless to totally different worldwide places – not least on this continent – which appear to have been spared the worst.

  • His first degree is under-reporting – a specific problem in a lot much less developed nations
  • His second is under-testing resulting from restricted functionality and property
  • The third – extreme on many specialists’ lists – is demographics, and the youthful populations of many worldwide places in Africa
  • Subsequent comes the issue of how the virus reached South Africa – via travellers who didn’t are inclined to mingle with the inhabitants at large, enabling the authorities to stamp out the first wave of infections comparatively efficiently
  • Fifth is the early lockdown carried out in South Africa, and in a lot of totally different components of the continent
  • The sixth degree – one I raised in a recent article – is the hypothesis of pre-existing immunity, resulting from prior publicity to the four frequent coronaviruses in circulation
  • Seventh is the potential have an effect on of hotter temperatures
  • Eighth is the potential place of altitude on the virus
  • And ninth entails the phrase “stochastically” – a reference to the unpredictable method this virus appears to unfold, and the difficulty of predicting when specific individual an an infection peaks usually tend to arrive.

9 theories. Nonetheless true to kind, Prof Karim is simply not completely glad by any of them, on the very least not with out further proof.

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image captionKids in South Africa now ought to placed on face masks in class rooms

“I doubt that anybody of these is a major contributor that explains the entire distinction [of why some countries have done better than others],” he acknowledged.

“Even collectively, these wouldn’t make clear nearly all of the excellence we’re seeing. It stays intriguing to me.”

media captionThe coronavirus diagnostics tools made in South Africa

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